13 Aug 2019
Coal India will release its first-quarter financial results on Tuesday and the Street is expecting more or less flattish numbers that could be mildly positive or mildly negative. The offtake numbers are around 153 million tonnes (mt) approximately.
The reason for flattish topline is that there will be higher fuel supply agreement (FSA) sales, higher realisations as well but lower e-auction volumes.
In terms of realisations, the demand has been good for the power sector. So a bit of a jump up is expected in realisations for the bulk of their sales as the FSA sales.
In e-auction realisations, in Q4 of last fiscal year, that number had moved up all the way to around Rs 2,750 per tonne. Yet on a year on year (YoY) basis, the e-auction realisation should come in higher.
The better realisations are expected to flow down to operating profits because in terms of margins, the street is working with a 25 percent odd margins and in terms of net profits, Rs 4,200 crore odd is the number the analysts are looking at.
Key things to watch out for
- Sales seen (GU) 0.9 percent at Rs 24,483 crore vs Rs 24,260 crore
- Offtake flat at 153.3 mt vs 153.5 mt
- E-auction volumes seen (RD) 28 percent at 14 mt vs 19.4 mt
- FSA volumes seen (GU) 3.5 percent at 135 mt vs 130.4 mt
- Operating profit seen (GU) 16 percent at Rs 6,125 crore vs Rs 5,277.5 crore
- Margins seen (GU) at 25 percent vs 21.8 percent
- Profit after tax seen (GU) 11 percent at Rs 4,209 crore vs Rs 3,784 crore
- Higher FSA realisation and volumes offset by lower e-auction volumes
- Realisations to benefit from better FSA realisation & robust e-auction premium