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Budget session: Coal bill may pass, but land bill may be beaten out of shape

If the current budget session of Parliament is unproductive, it will not be because the Modi government has not done its best. After the washout of the winter session, when assorted Sadhvis and Sakshi Maharajs grabbed the headlines, making it easy for the opposition in the Rajya Sabha to prevent any business in the house, this time the only real issue relates to the ordinances issued after the winter session. The opposition is mighty miffed about it.

Meanwhile, Modi has spared no effort to avoid giving the opposition an excuse to disrupt the house, especially the Rajya Sabha, where the NDA is far short of a majority.

In recent days, Modi reached out to the Christian community, aggrieved due to the alleged “church attacks” in Delhi, built bridges to opposition parties (including Sharad Pawar and Mulayam Singh Yadav), and opened a line of communication even with Sonia Gandhi, with Parliamentary Affairs Minister Venkaiah Naidu meeting her at 10, Janpath.

Apart from the budget, there are three important markers for deciding how successful the government has been in getting the opposition to play ball: the insurance FDI bill, the coal mines amendment bill (which enables the allotment of mines for captive use to private companies), and the land acquisition bill.

The first two are possible with some effective coordination with the Congress party, but the last one (the land bill) is DOA: dead on arrival. The opposition is unlikely to give the government a free run with the land bill, come what may.

At this juncture, given Modi’s outreach to the opposition, there can only be two excuses available for the latter to create a ruckus in parliament and disrupt it: one relates to the “ordinance raj” of end-December, but the government can move quickly to contain the damage by promising debate and discussion on the bills to replace the ordinances.

The issue which is likely to generate most heat is the Land Acquisition Ordinance, which President Pranab Mukherjee, in his address to both houses of parliament today (23 February), has indicated the government is keen to legislate. Mukherjee said: " My Government attaches paramount importance to safeguard the interest of farmers and families affected by land acquisition.  While taking utmost care to protect the interest of farmers, including their compensation entitlements, the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act has been suitably refined to minimise certain procedural difficulties in acquisition of land inevitably required for critical public projects of infrastructure and for creation of basic amenities like rural housing, schools and hospitals, particularly in remote areas."

At the all-party meeting held on Sunday, the mood was not combative on this front, but nobody should be under any illusion that the opposition will give the government an easy time.

The government may find an entire phalanx of opposition leaders standing in the way, from Sonia Gandhi to the Trinamool Congress to the Janata Dal (United), not to speak of the Sangh parivar itself, and the Anna Circus currently underway in Jantar Mantar, this time with farmers in tow.

The insurance bill is the property of the Rajya Sabha, and a select committee has already made its recommendations for final changes. If the Rajya Sabha mangles the bill out of shape, it would be a sign of trouble. But the government can still prevent that if it manages to convince the Congress to cooperate. That was probably the main purpose of Naidu’s visit to Sonia Gandhi.

The coal mines bill may also be less of a problem, for the first round of auctions has already taken place under the ordinance. If the Rajya Sabha does not play ball, the auctions still cannot be reversed since the law is valid, under the constitution, for six weeks after a parliament session begins. This means government has time till about the second week of April to get the law passed. The auctions that are already over cannot be reversed unless parliament annuls the ordinance specifically – which is impossible as long as the BJP has a majority in the Lok Sabha.

In fact, the longer the Rajya Sabha delays the legislation, the better it is for the government, for the second phase of the coal mine auctions begins on 25 February, when 19 non-operative mines will be offered for allotment to the highest bidders.

In short, barring a major goof-up, the coal mines bills should go through.

The biggest headache for the government is the Land Acquisition Ordinance. Venkaiah Naidu told the all-party meeting that the government was willing to address all concerns of the opposition about the bills, but the chances are the opposition, newly emboldened by the BJP’s defeat in the Delhi assembly elections, will want to give the government a bloody nose once more.

Naidu pointed out that “several state governments cutting across party lines have expressed difficulties in land acquisition for development projects under the Act of 2013 and sought modifications.”

But if he is hoping that what states want the central parties will accept, it is a forlorn hope. Nobody wanted the land ordinance in its present form barring Sonia Gandhi, but such is the emotive appeal of land, that even the BJP could not oppose the law when it was legislated in 2013 by UPA-2.

The government’s best chance is to set up a joint select committee of parliament in the Lok Sabha to recommend changes in the land ordinance, and let it lapse. It is not going to pass in its current form. A joint session of parliament can happen only if the Rajya Sabha specifically rejects it, but the house can delay the inevitable for at least six months. So a joint committee is the best bet.

The select committee’s version will surely take several weeks to formulae, and this means the bill can, if at all, be introduced only in the second half of the budget session, where too it may face opposition in the Rajya Sabha. The first part of the budget session of parliament will continue till 20 March. The second part will start on 20 April and conclude on 8 May.

Assuming the government is willing to accept half a loaf instead of the whole loaf it proposes, it is unlikely that the bill will pass in the budget session. We may to wait for the monsoon session for the government to take a second crack at the bill.

source: http://www.firstpost.com