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China well-supplied with coal for winter, says industry group

23 Oct 2013


China’s coal market will remain amply supplied into the fourth quarter despite peak winter consumption, and the fundamentals are expected to remain much the same next year, local media reported on Tuesday, citing the China Coal Transportation Association.
 
China is the world’s top coal producer and consumer. Abundant domestic supplies have kept prices depressed and dampened its appetite for imports.
 
Should China’s economy grow at a weaker-than-expected pace next year, the domestic coal market would easily tip into a state of oversupply, the China Securities Journal quoted Bin Haoxiang, director of the association, as saying at an industry conference.
 
The association also said China’s coal consumption is expected to grow about 3 per cent per year and reach 4.8 billion tonnes by 2020, the Securities Times reported.
 
Coal arrivals into China in September slipped 0.9 per cent from August to 25.7 million tonnes, as a narrowing price arbitrage has made overseas supplies less attractive. Imports in the first nine months of this year rose 18.5 per cent, down from 34 per cent in the same period last year.
 
China’s steam coal prices edged higher last week, posting their first weekly gain in 11 months as winter restocking by utilities coincided with a two-week planned maintenance of the main coal railway, and a pick-up in the economy could be buffering demand, traders said
 
Domestic coal prices rose 1 yuan from a week ago to 531 yuan (HK$672) per tonne on October 16, the first weekly gain since November 7, last year, according to the Bohai-Bay Rim Steam Coal index.
 
Although that has sparked hopes of a short-term price recovery, trade sources said gains would be capped by plentiful supply, while a resumption of railway operations towards the end of the month could again start to pressure prices.
 
“Major power plants are comfortably stocked and are unlikely to increase their bids in the coming weeks given the annual contract negotiations will be starting in early December,” said a Shanghai-based trader.

Source: South China Moring Post