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Coal market outlook subdued

16 Dec 2013

December 16: Seaborne coal prices showed a mixed trend in the week ended December 13.

Higher grade thermal coal prices made hefty gains at RBCT and were also up in Australia and Indonesia, while coking coal prices remained largely flat. Apparently, there was no specific reason for the firming up of RBCT prices as enquiries from India and China remained modest.

Freight rates for Panamax vessels continued to rise last week after a marginal increase in the previous week. In the currency market, the Indian rupee slid versus the US dollar to below 62-levels.

In the domestic market, Coal India Limited (CIL) was pulled up by the Competition Commission of India (CCI) for allegedly exploiting its monopolistic position and was slapped a hefty penalty of Rs 1,773 crore. Coal production and offtake performances, however, remained below targets.

Meanwhile, hopes for an industrial revival were dashed as India’s industrial production (IIP) index fell by 1.8% in October 2013 after growing 2% in September, a contraction witnessed for the first time in the last four months.

In sync with the general gloom in the market, India’s imports of coal, including steam, coking, anthracite, PCI, pet coke and met coke through the 20 major and minor ports fell 12.78% to 2.660 million tons (mt) in the week ended December 13 compared to 3.05 mt (revised) coal imports recorded in the week ended December 6. This was also lower than 2.745 mt coal imported in the week ended November 29.

In view of the lukewarm demand, falling rupee and rise in freight rates, the demand for imported coal is likely to be subdued in the coming week, market sources said.