Thermal power will remain crucial for base load management: Ind-Ra
18 Aug 2025
Coal-based power will remain critical for base load
management in the medium term, though renewable capacity additions remain
strong, according to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).
Furthermore, thermal capacity additions are expected to
pick up pace in FY26, considering the capacity under construction and demand
expectation by 2031-32 (FY32), Ind-Ra experts said in a webinar.
"We expect thermal power to remain critical for base
load management in the medium term, though renewable capacity additions remain
strong. Land acquisition, connectivity and adequate evacuation/transmission
infrastructure remain key monitorables for the sector. The consistent
functioning of the Late Payment Surcharge Rules 2022 supports the counterparty
risk, even among entities selling directly selling to discoms," Vishal
Kotecha, Director & Head - Infrastructure & Project Finance, Ind-Ra
said.
Base load is the minimum demand observed over a day. This
load is generally lowest during the night when solar isn't generating. Hence,
non-solar capacity, especially thermal, is required to manage the base load, he
explained.
Ind-Ra also maintains stable rating outlook for thermal
power projects for the rest of FY26 based on healthy PLF, dependency on
thermal, high revenue visibility through power purchase agreements (PPAs) and
adequate internal liquidity.
During FY25 and April-July FY26, PPAs for over 17
gigawatts (GW) of new capacity were in various stages of approvals from state
electricity regulatory commission, such as tender and power purchase signing,
indicating a strong demand for thermal power purchase. Of the 17 GW, power
purchase agreement has been signed for 2 GW.
Kotecha said thermal capacities contributed 71.5
percent to the total power generated during April-June quarter for FY26 with a
share of 49.9 percent of the installed capacity. Ind-Ra expects thermal PLF to
be healthy at 69-70 percent for FY26 and FY27, also supported by sufficient
coal stock.